WBB Preview: Utah State Looks To Snap Losing Streak Against Air Force

As it continues to piece itself together before the end of the season, Utah State will play host to the Air Force Falcons on Wednesday morning. The Aggies will be hunting for revenge and redemption after all but earning a victory, only to leave it on the table in a heartbreaking loss in Colorado Springs earlier this year. The Aggies did everything but win, and this time, they are looking to close the deal. 

Utah State’s first game against the Academy was a memorable one for all the wrong reasons. The Aggies, after a slight hiccup, took off and looked good. They controlled much of the first half against Air Force and even outplayed the Falcons for most of the game, but a self-sabotaging third quarter sunk any chance the Aggies had at pulling out a victory in Colorado Springs.

Air Force struck first and pieced together a 12-2 lead to open the game, but Utah State responded in kind and rattled off a 12-2 run of its own to tie the game neatly at 14 to end the first quarter. Air Force retook the lead, but Utah State’s 14-2 run, fueled by a 5-0 run from Isabella Tanedo, gave the Aggies a seven-point lead. The Falcons made a push, but Utah State weathered the storm and clung to a hard-fought one-point lead at the half.

In the third quarter, Utah State imploded. In the opening two minutes, Tanedo hit a free throw and Stubbs hit a three, which put the Aggies in front by two at the time, but at that point, two-thirds of Utah State’s scoring was behind it. Latta hit a jumper to retake a two-point lead at the 7:27 mark, and the Aggies wouldn’t score again until the 8:34 mark of the following quarter. The offense completely dried up and the defense couldn’t stand up to the impossible task of keeping a game close without any help from its offense. By the end of the third, the Aggies trailed by 17 after leading by two early in the frame. In the fourth quarter, Utah State chiseled five points off that deficit, but the 24-6 disparity in the third gave the Falcons everything they needed to cruise to victory and the Aggies fell by 12.

Giving up a 24-6 quarter isn’t ever ideal, but it’s especially painful against an Air Force team that realistically has no business dominating Utah State like that. Air Force is averaging 65.5 points per game, or about 16.4 points per quarter. It is giving up 61.7 points per game, or about 15.4 per quarter. The Aggies found themselves well on the wrong end of both of those numbers during that quarter. Even in that game specifically, Utah State scored 14, 17, and 29 in the other three quarters, then six in the third – a massive difference in output. It’s not an exact science, but it does show just how detrimental that stanza was for a hopeful Aggie team. Utah State won or tied each of the other three quarters and outscored the Falcons 60-54 outside of it.

All else aside, Utah State just needs to not fall asleep for a full quarter to give itself a very real chance against the Falcons. If Utah State can match its performance from last time and simply avoid truancy during the third quarter, it will likely be in good shape. Utah State wouldn’t really even need to improve, something it has been doing in all the other rematches it has had so far this year. 

Still, the Aggies do have plenty of things to improve on, and are eager to do so. Defensively, the Aggies need to reign in the Falcons. Air Force had five players in double digits as it notched what was, at the time, its second-highest point total in a conference game and its highest in the previous five. Utah State will also need to at least match the Falcons in rebounding, and overtake them if possible. An outside shooting performance better than the 10 of 33 one USU got last time would go a long way as well.

Players To Know

Jo Huntimer: Huntimer had a low-scoring game against Utah State last time, but that isn’t out of the ordinary for the senior guard. Huntimer leads the team in assists, and that’s what she does best. She posted a very on-brand line against Utah State with two points, seven rebounds, 10 assists and two steals. In her very next game, she showed off the other side of what she can do and logged a double-double with 16 points (a season-high), 12 rebounds and five assists. It was an unnerving warning that, while doesn’t do it often, she can fill it up when needed.

Huntimer is averaging 3.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.8 steals and just 1.5 turnovers per game. Her impressive assist figure puts her in second place in the conference and gives her a rock-solid assist-to-turnover ratio. She is one of the scarier players in the conference because of how quietly she can dismember an opposing team.

On multiple occasions this year, she has gone scoreless and still contributed massively. Most recently, she did this when she had zero points against Wyoming with four rebounds, three assists and a steal. The time before that, she had zero points, two rebounds, six assists, three steals and a block against Nevada. Her most recent outing was a more balanced one. She had eight points, 10 rebounds and five assists against Colorado State.

Jordyn DeVaughn: The sophomore from West Elm, Texas is an interesting player. She is averaging 5.0 points per game, but a lot of that production is coming from just a small handful of games, including the one against Utah State. She came off the bench and didn’t find much resistance against the Aggies, notching what was a season-high and the second-highest-scoring game of her career with 13 points, eight rebounds and an assist. Two games later, she dropped 15 on San Jose State, and earlier in the year, she had 10 against New Mexico and nine against Northern Colorado. In those four games, she is averaging 11.8 points per game, raising her full-season average considerably.

But, she’s clearly comfortable against the Aggies. Last year she scored five and nine against the Aggies in a season where she averaged 3.5 points.

She has put two scoreless games together coming into this contest, but going scoreless isn’t what she does against Utah State, so that can be expected to change. She is averaging nine points per game against the Aggies, and she’ll probably end up closer to that number than to zero.

Madison Smith: Smith is one of the better players on this Air Force team, and she showed it when she helped to host the Aggies earlier this year. Not only is she a premier talent in Colorado Springs, but in the entire conference. She is the Mountain West’s current steal leader with 2.5 per game, joining teammate Jayda McNabb as the fifth-leading rebounder (4.1 RPG).

Her defense is agonizingly intense, and her offense is at times just as good. The Aggies can’t get too comfortable with Smith on the floor, no matter what side of the ball they're playing on. Her athleticism keeps her competitive with anyone on the perimeter, and at 5-8, she has enough size to bother Utah State’s guards like the 5-10 CJ Latta, the 5-9 Elise Livingston, and the 5-5 Stubbs, who she has a couple of inches on.

Smith harassed the Aggies and lifted three steals off of them, adding a brutal 14 points, six rebounds, four assists, three steals and a block. Smith is a senior and is in her third year as a consistent starter for the Academy. She's averaging 13.7 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and, of course, a conference-leading 2.5 steals.

Stats To Know

Turnovers: Air Force and Utah State both like forcing turnovers, and the Falcons are one of the more adept teams in the nation when it comes to takeaways. They are swiping 10.9 steals per game and their defense boasts a 13.7 percent steal rate. In total, they are forcing 20.3 turnovers per game. The Aggies aren’t too far behind and are getting 8.7 steals per game for a steal rate of 9.9 percent, forcing 16.6 turnovers per game.

Utah State is better suited to get into a fast-paced, turnover-heavy shootout because that's what it's built for. Utah State averages 74.4 possessions per game while Air Force averages 69.5. The Aggies haven’t seen much success with it this year, but that can largely be chalked up to Utah State being out-talented. That's not as much of an issue with Air Force, a team that is much more competitive with Utah State and won’t be able to flex superior talent and depth to muscle its way past the Aggies.

What could cut against the Aggies, however, is that they are far more turnover-prone than the Falcons. If the game turns into a sloppy track meet it might not matter, but if Air Force can keep its composure, it could put the Aggies into a tricky position. Air Force protects the ball well and only commits 14.6 turnovers per game, and opponents of the Falcons are getting just 7.5 steals per game. The Aggies are much more willing to part with the basketball. They are giving away 17.2 turnovers per game and their opponents are snatching 8.9 steals per game.

Rebounding: Neither team is particularly good at rebounding. In fact, statistically speaking, both teams are actively bad on the boards. Air Force has a total rebound rate of 47.3 percent and Utah State has a total rebound rate of 44.3 percent.

When the teams met last, it was an even match on the glass with both squads pulling down 40 boards. That was with much of the team underperforming for the Aggies. Taliyah Logwood averages 4.4 and grabbed three, Stubbs averages 3.3 and grabbed two, Latta averages 2.1 and grabbed one, and even Sophie Sene came in slightly below her 4.4 average as she grabbed four. Livingston did pick up some slack, bringing down seven against her season average of 2.6, but Utah State should be able to gain an advantage here. In a game that will probably be decided by a handful of points, and by extension, a handful of possessions, winning the rebounding battle could be crucial.